Overall
- Language
- English
- Conflict of Interest
- In relation to this article, we declare that there is no conflict of interest.
- Publication history
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Received October 27, 2025
Revised March 5, 2026
Accepted April 3, 2026
Available online January 1, 1970
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This is an Open-Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bync/3.0) which permits
unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Most Cited
A Framework for Electricity Demand Forecasting under AI and EV Expansion: Comparative Analysis of ARIMAX, Prophet, and Diff usion Models
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11814-026-00721-3
Abstract
The rapid proliferation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Electric Vehicles (EVs) is reshaping electricity demand patterns,
with important implications for grid stability and long-term energy planning. Conventional forecasting approaches,
largely based on historical trends and macroeconomic indicators, have limited ability to represent structurally distinct and
technology-driven demand growth. This study proposes a modular electricity demand forecasting framework that explicitly
separates baseline demand from AI- and EV-driven components. Within this structure, the ARIMAX model is used to
estimate baseline demand from macroeconomic variables, while independent modules capture additional demand associated
with AI data centers and EV deployment. Using the United States as a case study, annual data from 2015 to 2050
were analyzed. ARIMA, ARIMAX, and Prophet models were evaluated through observed-data validation and long-term
scenario consistency analysis relative to publicly available outlook trajectories. In addition, a diffusion-based probabilistic
module was implemented to characterize long-horizon demand uncertainty. Results indicate that incorporating AI and
EV components improves scenario consistency relative to baseline configurations. The proposed framework provides a
transparent and adaptable structure for integrating emerging demand drivers into medium- to long-term electricity planning
under technological disruption.

