Issue
Korean Journal of Chemical Engineering,
Vol.28, No.6, 1331-1339, 2011
Assessment of three forecasting methods for system marginal prices
The electricity supply industry is being restructured worldwide into a competitive market structure in which electricity is produced by generators, transmitted by transmission companies, and distributed by suppliers according to new trading agreements. In this market, system marginal price (SMP) plays a very important role. Obviously, an accurate prediction would benefit all market participants involved. The SMP profile is a typical time series and, to some extent, similar to the load profile. In this study, an SMP forecasting model is developed based on load demand and supply as well as past SMP data. The proposed forecasting model is compared with NN method and wavelet combined with NN scheme. Due to the different life style during weekdays and weekend, we distinguish comparisons between weekdays and weekends in summer, autumn and winter. For weekend forecasting, the NN method exhibits better forecasting performance than other methods. During weekdays, the proposed SMP forecasting method shows the best forecasting performance among other methods.
[References]
  1. Yao SJ, Song YH, Zhang LZ, Cheng XY, Electric Machines and Power Systems., 28, 983, 2000
  2. Catalo JPS, Mariano SJPS, Mendes VMF, Ferreira LAFM, An artificial neural network approach for short-term electricity prices forecasting, in Proc. 14th Int. Conf. on Intelligent System Applications to Power Systems, Nov., 411-416, 2007
  3. Angelus A, Electricity J., 14, 32, 2001
  4. Bunn DW, Proc. IEEE., 88, 163, 2000
  5. Bastian J, Zhu J, Banunarayanan V, Mukerji R, IEEE Comput. Appl. Power., 12, 40, 1999
  6. Conejo AJ, Contreras J, Espnola R, Plazas MA, Int. J. Forecast., 21, 435, 2005
  7. Catalo JPS, Mariano SJPS, Mendes VMF, Ferreira LAFM, IEEE Trans. Power Syst., 24, 337, 2009
  8. Reis R, da Silva A, IEEE Trans. Power Syst., 20, 189, 2005
  9. Lee KY, Cha YT, Park JH, IEEE Trans. Power Syst., 7, 124, 1992
  10. Dillon TS, Niebur D, Neural Networks Applications in Power System, London, CRL Publishing, 1996
  11. Conejo AJ, Plazas MA, Espinol R, IEEE Trans. Power Syst., 20, 1035, 2005
  12. Daubechies I, Ten Lectures On Wavelets, Philadelphia, Soc. Ind. Appl. Math., SIAM Press, 1992
  13. Meyer Y, Wavelets Algorithms & Applications, Philadelphia, Soc. Ind. Appl. Math., SIAM Press, 1993
  14. Chui CK, Wavelets: A Mathematical Tool For Signal Analysis, Philadelphia. Soc. Ind. Appl. Math., SIAM Press, 1990
  15. Haykin S, Neural networks: A comprehensive foundation, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1999
  16. Principe JC, Euliano NR, Lefebvre WC, Neural and adaptive systems: Fundamentals through simulations, New York, Wiley, 2000
  17. Szkuta BR, Sanabria LA, Dillon TS, IEEE Trans. Power Syst., 14, 851, 1999
  18. Ahn DH, Lee SJ, Load Forecasting of Power System, Proceedings of the Korean Institute Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers, Fall, 78-83, 2005