For durability improvement of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) polymer membrane, accelerated durability evaluation methods that can evaluate durability in a short time have been researched and developed. However, the lifespan of fuel cells for large commercial vehicles such as trucks and buses is more than three times that of passenger cars, and the chemical accelerated stress test (AST) time is also longer, reaching 1,500 hours or more. Therefore, in this study, as a method to evaluate the chemical durability of a membrane within a short time, it was examined whether the durability could be predicted by the pristine membrane characteristics. Hydrogen crossover current density (HCCD) and short resistance (SR) were estimated as initial characteristics, and AST time was predicted through the Fenton experiment, which was possible as an out-of-cell experiment for 3 hours. As the HCCD and fluoride ion emission concentration increased, the AST time tended to be linearly shortened, but there was a deviation (R2≒0.65). When the SR decreased, the AST time showed a linear increase, and the accuracy was high (R2=0.93), so the AST time could be predicted with the initial SR of the membrane.